A Hard Trade-Off

Cuba's Generation Y blogger Yoani Sanchez is truly one of our heroes.

We hold her in the highest esteem and wholly agree with her observations regarding Cuba's dictatorship. Nonetheless, we respectfully disagree with her views on U.S. policy.

The following is a thoughtful comment that was posted by a reader of the blog, Penultimos Dias, on the same issue:

I profoundly admire Yoani. I agree with most of what she has to say. And I sincerely hope the Cuban government lifts its embargo on the freedoms of ordinary Cubans.

That said, I think her proposal for unilateral concessions on the part of the U.S. is very risky.

The logic of interest politics in the U.S. suggests that once the embargo ends it will never come back.

What if Raul and his cronies use this opportunity to reform like Vietnam? You might see fast growth, rising standards of living and a postponement of the democracy question for another generation -- a hard trade-off.

Moreover, nobody will care about Yoani in this context, or the dissidents, or prisoners of conscience -- ugly inconveniences on the way to making money. Vietnam and China suggest this.

Yoani's key argument (or hope) is that the unilateral removal of sanctions will undercut the regime's arguments. That may well be true but besides the point when people are busy making money and no longer interested in democracy. Besides, I think it insults Cuban's intelligence to think they still believe the regime's propaganda.

So the key question is this: Will unilateral concessions bring about full democratic transition or a Vietnamese one? The answer is uncertain and open to argument, for sure, but we can begin by assigning probabilities. I put the probability of a Vietnam-like outcome at 50%. I base this on my cursory reading of the historical record.

I guess Yoani thinks the probability is much lower (10%?). I'd be very interested in knowing why she thinks this. On the basis of what arguments and evidence? Believe me, I want Yoani to be right.

The cost of being wrong, however, is very high. It may condemn Cubans to one more generation of "communist capitalism." Cubans might become consumerists like Americans -- with their Levis and iPhones -- but without American's political freedoms. Surely this would be the greatest travesty in the name of "Cuban sovereignty".

I believe Cubans should push -- peacefully -- for the whole cake, while the opportunity lasts. You have nothing to lose. To not do so now is a great risk.

P.S. In passing, there is absolutely no evidence that economic growth leads to democratization, e.g. Singapore, Saudi Arabia, etc. So don't pin your hopes on that either.