Actual Cuban-American Vote Result: Romney 58% -Obama 42%

Monday, November 12, 2012
Actual Cuban-American Vote Result: Romney 58% -Obama 42%

Results show a reduction in support for the Republican candidate, but not the dramatic shift incorrectly predicted by some exit polls.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - A scientific analysis of the actual voting results in Miami-Dade County show that Governor Mitt Romney bested President Barack Obama 58-42% among Cuban-American voters.  This does represents a 6% gain for President Obama from 2008, but not of the magnitude predicted by some exit polls.

Obama campaign officials in Florida have stated (Financial Times, 11/8/12) that Governor Romney's pick of Paul Ryan as his Vice-Presidential nominee, whose past voting record included support for unilaterally lifting sanctions against the Cuban dictatorship, created skepticism among some Cuban-Americans and gave them an opening to make a case on economic and social issues.

"While Congressman Ryan's position on Cuba policy had evolved years before the election (in 2007), it certainly created suspicion among some Cuban-American voters," said Mauricio Claver-Carone, Executive Director of Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy, Corp.

"The Obama campaign took full advantage of the opening created by the Ryan pick."

The scientific analysis was conducted by Dr. Dario Moreno and Dr. Kevin Hill and commissioned by Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy, Corp.

Below is the Summary Memo of their findings:

Mitt Romney under-performed among Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County.  President Obama won Miami-Dade County by an increase majority in 2012 over 2008.  In 2008, Barack Obama received 499,831 votes in Miami-Dade County compared to 360,551 for the Republican candidate Senator John McCain.  Obama's margin of victory was 139,280 votes.  This year Obama improved his vote total in Miami Dade to 540,776 compared to 332,602 for Republican candidate Mitt Romney.  Obama increased his margin of victory to 208,174.  In other words Obama won Miami-Dade County in 2012 by 68,884 more votes than in 2008.

The Obama campaign and several exit polls (Fox News and Pew) claimed that Obama improved his showing in Miami-Dade County by winning the Cuban American poll 49% to 47%.  Bendixen & Amandi International, a Democratic polling firm that has worked for Obama, found a slightly different but still significant breakdown of Cuban-American support, with 48 percent for Obama and 52 percent for Romney. While, there is little doubt that Obama improved his showing among Cuban American voters from the 36% he received in 2008, we found the difference a little less dramatic.

Professor Kevin Hill and I did an ecological regression of large Cuban precincts in Miami-Dade County and found that the Cuban Americans voted for Romney 58% to 42%.  This results includes the over 50,000 Absentee ballots submitted by Cuban-Americans over sixty in Miami-Dade County that were not captured by Fox News and Pew exit polling. This demographic is traditionally the most Republican demographic in Miami-Dade.   There was a significant reduction in Cuban American support for the Republican candidate but not as dramatic as the exit polls found.