In My Humble Opinion, Pt. 40

Friday, November 9, 2012
From The National Journal:

An exit poll by Bendixen & Amandi International, a Democratic polling firm that has worked for Obama, found a slightly different but still significant breakdown of Cuban-American support, with 48 percent for Obama and 52 percent for Romney. “It’s a historic figure, an unprecedented figure, a real eye-popping figure when it comes to support for a Democratic candidate,” said pollster Fernand Amandi. Obama got 35 percent of the Cuban-American vote in 2008.

But Mauricio Claver-Carone, the leading lobbyist for the Cuban-American community in Washington, is skeptical of exit polls showing such a dramatic uptick for the president. For example, the vote for Obama in Miami-Dade, where the Republican vote is mostly Cuban, increased only 4 percentage points over the last election. Claver-Carone also said Romney won several overwhelmingly Cuban-American precincts in Miami, in some cases by large margins.

A Latino Decisions poll in Florida on the eve of the election found Obama’s support among Cuban-Americans unchanged from 2008.

“I have a problem with the exit polls,” Claver-Carone said, “but it’s going to take a few days to crunch all the numbers.”