There Fabiola Goes Again

Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Even though the vote count for Miami-Dade County is just now being finalized, The Miami Herald's Fabiola Santiago couldn't wait to run off and jump to conclusions on the Cuban-American vote based on a highly unreliable exit poll.

Why can't these columnists responsibly wait to analyze the final results, precinct-by-precinct?

Thus, Fabiola wrote today:

"When I saw the magic number Wednesday morning — a stunning 47 percent — it was not as big a surprise to me.

I had seen the momentum of support quietly building for President Barack Obama among one of his most unlikely constituencies — Cuban-Americans in Miami — over this lengthy and hard-fought campaign.

According to exit polls, 47 percent of the Cuban-American vote in Miami-Dade went to the president — a shockingly high number to both Republicans and Democrats and to pollsters and pundits engaging in post-election analysis."

Never mind that this is statistically impossible if Governor Romney won 38% of the overall vote in Miami-Dade County.

Plus, nearly half of the electorate cast its ballot before election day -- rendering such exit polls useless.

But it shouldn't have come as a surprise, as Fabiola wrote the same narrative in 1997:

"There are also some generational differences. Younger people are more likely than older exiles to favor dialogue and to want to hear music from the island played on Miami radio, according to the poll."

("Exiles Glum About Prospects for Cuba", June 29, 1997 by Cynthia Corzo and Fabiola Santiago)

And again in 1999:

"Some of the change is generational . Cubans who came to the United States in the 1960s - and traditionally have held the more conservative views - now make up only a third of the Cuban population in Miami-Dade."

("U.S.-Cuba Exchanges Becoming More Common", March 26, 1999, by Fabiola Santiago)

After being wrong for over a decade, you'd think she'd practice some prudence by now.